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Alex Smart Alex Smart
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 18, 2019
Hawaii vs Illinois
Hawaii
+16 -113 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The Rainbow Warriors heading into Monday night,  are 3-1 so far this season.The Rainbow Warriors possess good guard scoring and rare height for a mid-major program and should provide the Illini with a viable challenge. 

HAWAII is 3-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS since 1997.

Play on Hawaii to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 18, 2019
Hornets vs Raptors
Hornets
+9 -110 at Mirage
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Toronto is short handed with injured Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka on the sidelines. Im betting the Raptors offensive flow will be curtailed as well as they ability to cover in a game that I also have pegged at being fairly low scoring. 

The Hornets are 9-1 ATS  L/10 on the road.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 28-9  ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 18, 2019
Hartford vs Oakland
UNDER 131½ -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

After scoring only 50 points in a loss to Maryland last time out, Im betting the home team comes out here ready to get back into a offensive groove vs a Hartford side that they can light up. After playing the Terps this will seem like a walk in the park  metaphorically speaking. Hartford will also have to open up offensively with some fireworks of their own or be blown of the court which Im betting leads to a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

OAKLAND is 62-38 OVER in all home games since 1997 with a combined average of 155.3 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 18, 2019
Bryant vs Niagara
Niagara
+4½ -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

The Purple Eagles ushered in a new era with first-year head coach Greg Paulus taking over the program , and have started out with three straight losses, and now here at home will be primed to bounce back. ( Hopemism- Niagara had season-highs in points (80), 3-pointers (8), free throws (22), rebounds (29), assists (16), and steals (6) against Stephen F. Austin. The Purple Eagles shot over 55 percent (55.6 %) from the field for the first time since February 23, 2018.

BRYANT is 0-7 ATS  in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5.

NIAGARA is 12-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

CBB Home teams as an underdog or pick (NIAGARA) - in a non-conference game between two teams from mid-major division 1-A conferences, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 24-5 ATS L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Niagara to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 18, 2019
Hornets vs Raptors
UNDER 214½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The Raptors were showing signs of fatigue Saturday and Pascal Siakam had an off night with 15 points on 6-for-24 shooting with five turnovers and with only one day rest in between games, I sure their still a bit exhausted. Also being without injured Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka. defence and a slower pace has been key for the Raptors and that will once again be the case tonight here  on home court as they get reacclimatized  to being on home court after an extensive 5 game road trip. Tonight Im betting the Raps will hold the Hornets to under their season ppg offensive average of 106 ppg, and for they themselves to have a limited out put because of being short handed. 

Under is 3-1-1 in Hornets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 Monday games.Under is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (TORONTO) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 475-337 UNDER L/23 seasons for a long term 59% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 18, 2019
Cavs vs Knicks
OVER 209½ -107 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the NY Knicks are struggling, and both are looking at this like a winnable game, and both Im betting will be primed to be aggressive here in transition which Im betting helps this combined score get over this total. Yes, I know both sides have been creating unders of late, but that wont be the case here tonight. Note: NYK L/47 home games have seen a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.CLEVELAND in their L/44 games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 218.1 ppg scored.

Over is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play OVER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 18, 2019
Bucks vs Bulls
Bulls
+8½ -105 at Bovada
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

The Milwaukee Bucks will go for their fourth win in a row when they visit the Chicago Bulls on Monday night but Im betting that will not come that easily. The early market looks inefficient despite of the discrepancies in both teams current performance levels. However recency bias, is at play here giving us value on as slightly bloated line. 

The Bucks are 0-12 ATS /SU on the road off a game as a favorite in which they held their opponent to fewer than 85 points.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-67 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.MILWAUKEE is 70-115 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 18, 2019
Fairleigh Dickinson vs Army
Fairleigh Dickinson
+1 -110 at sportsbook
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Army is off a loss to Air force last time out, and will now be in an emotional letdown spot after that spirited by fall short effort. Fairleigh Dickinson beat Army last year by DDs at home, and now will once again take the advantage on a short lined rod tilt. 

FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 9-2 ATS  versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons. FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 9-2 ATS  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 7-0 ATS L/7  a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5. 

Play on Fairleigh Dickinson to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 18, 2019
Thunder vs Clippers
Clippers
-9½ -110 at YouWager
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

 The key super star duo of George and Leonard are both supposed to be on the floor tonight against the Thunder, which makes for a over powering situation that favors the Clippers to come out of this with a convincing victory.  

LA CLIPPERS are 21-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS  in home games in November games over the last 2 seasons

Donovan is 1-10 ATS (in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 18, 2019
Middle Tennessee vs Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina
-3 -110 at sportsbook
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

My power rankings make Coastal Carolina a -4 or better favorite which gives us a solid buffer on this line which makes this a solid wagering opportunity. 

MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-10 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-9 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 season.

COASTAL CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIDDLE TENN ST) - poor shooting team from last season - made 42% or less of their shot attempts, in a non-conference game between two teams from mid-major division 1-A conferences are 5-24 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Coastal Carolina to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 18, 2019
Presbyterian vs Notre Dame
Notre Dame
-24½ -124 at GTBets
Lost
$124.0
Play Type: Premium

Presbyterian was picked this preseason to finish 10th in the 11-team Big South and are completely out gunned vs a Notre Dame hoops group that has a stead fast philosophy in place and has won its first three by an average of 24.6 points.  

Notre Dame is at home tonight and Im betting they dont take their foot of the peddle until the end, making them viable DD chalk favs. 

CBB team (NOTRE DAME) - off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 27-8 . L/23 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 18, 2019
Blazers vs Rockets
Rockets
-7 -106 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Houston owns a run and gun offence that averages more than 118.5 ppg ranking 2nd in the NBA in output. The Rockets recently have also picked up their defensive play which makes them dangerous, as is evident by their current 7 game win streak. Meanwhile, Portland their opponents tonight have been highly inconsistent and has lost 6 of their L/8 overall and fade material in their current form.


HOUSTON is 30-18 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 19-9 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 15-2 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.

The Rockets are 6-0-1 ATS L/7 covering by more than 7 ppg .

Play on Houston to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 18, 2019
Chiefs vs Chargers
UNDER 53½ -115 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Mexico

KC has shown itself to be vulnerable against viable ground attacks of late and currently rank   31 st in defensive run success rate and because of this I expect the Chargers will focus on their run game to move the chains and eat clock time . This strategy will keep the Chiefs star QB Mahomes out of his flow and off the field for long chunks of time which Im betting equates to a lower scoring grinding affair than the public expects. Note: LA CHARGERS is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing  4.5  or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.8 ppg going on the board. 

LA CHARGERS is 15-4 UNDER  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored.

NFL Division games with high totals ( 44+) have gone under at a 180-109-3 62% clip since the 2003 season. 

NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - off a road loss against a division rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate . 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 46-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.